Author Topic: 2020 Wave Assignments and Estimated Ascent Times...  (Read 5233 times)

John Garner

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2020 Wave Assignments and Estimated Ascent Times...
« on: March 02, 2020, 05:31:53 PM »
I will be rolling out the 2020 Qualification Checklist in the next few days, but before I do, I wanted to update folks on the tweaks we will be making to the wave assignment process this year.

Like last year, we will be basing runner's wave assignments based on their "Estimated Ascent Time" (or just "EST" to save some typing below).

There are up to four EST's per runner, as follows:
  • Their fastest Ascent (or ascent portion of the PPM) from the past 3 years
  • Their Qualifier (if different from their recent Ascents)
  • The 2020 Garden 10 Mile Run [1]
  • The 2020 Barr Trail Mountain Race [1]
The race result that produces the Fastest EST will be used. For every runner who has had their qualification checked, you will be able to see all of their EST's and sort the list by EST. 

Calculating EST's:
For determining the EST based on a given result, see the handy chart below:
  • Award and Competitive Entries:  These runners will have "00:00:00" listed for their Qualifier EST and will have a qualification type of either "Award" or "Competitive". They are automatically placed in the first wave.
  • Recent Ascents (or Ascent portions of the PPM): The Ascent time is the EST. The only exception is the 2018 Ascent, in which case we just double the time to Barr Camp and that becomes the EST.
  • Barr Trail Mountain Race:  Multiply by 1.605
  • Full Marathon: Multiply by 1.168
  • Half Marathon: Multiply by 2.546
  • Ultras/Trail/Other: Take the result, divide it by the overall winner's time, and multiply that by 2:50:00
  • Garden of the Gods 10 Mile: Multiply the result by 3.042
Note that these factors are new for 2020. We looked at last year's results to come up with the average time factor for each type of qualifier. It greatly simplifies the equations previously used.

Wave Assignments:
Wave 1 consists of the Award / Competitive folks with bib # 1 -> 99. Then the top 50 women by EST with bib #100 -> 149, and finally the top 50 men by EST with bib #150 -> 199.
Wave 2+ each consist of the next 98 runners based on their EST without regard for sex. (We leave two bibs in each wave for oopses, lost bibs, etc).

Note that if there are more than 100 competitive runners (like last year in the PPM due to the Golden Trail Series), then we will dip into the 100 -> 199 range to cover them in a way that keeps the number of men and women in the 1st wave about equal.

Exceptions:
As with any system, if you feel you should be in Wave 1 despite the above, email me at [email protected] to plead your case. I save bib #95 -> 99 just for this case. I will warn you that this is not for the faint of heart. You need to have some good examples of how you can place in the top 20 overall (not masters or age group). Examples of folks I've bumped up in the past include a former national class cyclist, anybody with an ITRA ranking of 'A' or better, and recently retired pro triathletes.

I'm sure there will be questions. Feel free to post below and I'll try and answer them. 

--john

Footnotes:
[1] Note that if you want your Garden 10 Mile or BTMR time to be factored in, you _MUST_ register online. Folks who use pen and paper to register won't be factored in because I have no automated way of matching folks up. The Matt vs Mathew and name collisions (We had three runners named "Ashley White"  one year) make automated matching a nightmare.  Besides, online is cheaper.

« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 02:39:15 PM by John Garner »

shiggins

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Re: 2020 Wave Assignments and Estimated Ascent Times...
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2020, 10:10:16 AM »
Hey John,

Can you provide an estimate for the time between each row in a starting wave? Just trying to estimate actual start time for myself. I'm number 247 this year. I am not asking for a scientifically accurate number, just wondering if it's ~ 1 minute between each line of 10, or ~10 seconds.

Thanks!

John Garner

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Re: 2020 Wave Assignments and Estimated Ascent Times...
« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2020, 11:30:09 AM »
We are estimating 5-10 seconds between the rows and then a total of 3-5 minutes between the waves. (a minute or so to release the wave in front, then 2 or 3 to get the next wave into position)

So wave 2, row 5 (we count from zero for the rows) you are looking at about 7:04 to 7:06 or so. Give or take a minute or two.

shiggins

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Re: 2020 Wave Assignments and Estimated Ascent Times...
« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2020, 02:24:22 PM »
Thanks for the info/estimates John!

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