Author Topic: Weather Forecast  (Read 5497 times)

Stephen Peterson

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Weather Forecast
« on: August 14, 2016, 11:55:36 AM »
6 days out...weather looks great for the Ascent!  (I love cool temps)

Friday Night:  A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. West northwest wind around 10 mph.
Saturday:  A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. West southwest wind around 10 mph.

Stephen Peterson

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #1 on: August 14, 2016, 01:37:08 PM »

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2016

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH
DAY, GENERALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 45 MPH AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTERACTING
WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGES IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

stanfr

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2016, 06:02:29 PM »
Well, I would say cooler is a good bet. See the General Discussion Forum for additional weather info that I just posted.  ;)

BaristaLady

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2016, 07:01:08 PM »
Things are looking a bit worse than just "cool".  Here's the forecast now, for the summit on sat:

"A chance of snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible."    ;D

Hoot

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 03:51:03 PM »
Let's hope the current Mountain Forecast for 14,108' doesn't come to pass!

stanfr

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 07:10:46 PM »
Hoot, I'm not sure off the top of my head how that site derives it's forecasts--but obviously there's not a huge human input. I think those forecast temperatures and snow are probably a bit too pessimistic. The coldest air with this system will be well north-Wyoming and north. Temperatures in the free air at 14,000 feet fri night-sat morning will likely be near freezing, so with some heavier precipitation overnight it could drive the snow levels down a bit, but it will be showery so don't think it will be that dire. However, even some minor accumulations could shut the race down. A couple inches above the Cirque is certainly possible if the shower activity stays over the front range.

Mark

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 08:44:50 PM »
Let's just hope there is no lightning...

Mark

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2016, 08:50:26 PM »
Also, I am actually looking forward to a cooler race. The last few years it's been so damn hot at the start I got into trouble early. fingers crossed this year...

Andrew Moore

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2016, 10:11:21 AM »
Getting a bit nervous, this will be my first ppa run.

I have a small back pack that i am planning to wear with a couple of items with it being around freezing when we get above the treeline. Do people think this is necessary or do they have other suggestions based on the temp. I like the cold, but not sure about the wind.

Tim Stackhouse

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2016, 10:27:01 AM »
What weather will they shut the race down for? Anything short of lightning?

Yoni Fridman

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #10 on: August 19, 2016, 12:07:44 PM »
Andrew, given tomorrow's forecast, a pack with warmer stuff is a good idea. You might still want to start in shorts and t-shirt in Manitou, but above treeline may be unpleasant. Something like a wind jacket, hat, and gloves would be good to pack and have available toward the end of the race.

James Carlson

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #11 on: August 19, 2016, 02:42:41 PM »
The hourly forecasts I'm seeing show temps in the mid-30s on the summit during times when most people will finish. The rain is a different story. Looks like if you're finishing in 4 hours or so (or under), you might miss any rain. Sometime between 11 am and noon, however, the chances of rain go from 10% to 50%.

Vomastic

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #12 on: August 19, 2016, 03:14:52 PM »
Good analysis.  It also looks good for Barr Camp for the early runners.  The wind chill (bare skin) for the PP forecast was not checked.  To see the wind chill, check the box and click on submit.  The forecasts are usually updated every 6 hours or so (see the time in the upper right corner).  Should get more updates in late afternoon and this evening.  I will take a quick peek before I leave in the morning.  Plus we should have Stan give us an update later today. :)

Just noticed the forecast was updated at 2:36 pm,  Looks even better :)
« Last Edit: August 19, 2016, 03:56:03 PM by Vomastic »

stanfr

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #13 on: August 19, 2016, 06:07:06 PM »
35 degrees on summit right now--getting close! Heavy precip now moving into Manitou

stanfr

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Re: Weather Forecast
« Reply #14 on: August 19, 2016, 07:06:19 PM »
32 now...snowing at cog railway but the summit just looks wet. Looks like PP will luck out--the heaviest stuff is off to the south and east. A couple miles farther west and it would have gotten slammed...